日本央行：9月核心CPI涨2.9%，或持续按兵不动

Core Insights - Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the 2% target and accelerating from 2.7% in August, which sustains short-term interest rate hike expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food prices, showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, down from 3.3% in August, indicating a mixed inflation trend [1] - The inflation in Japan is primarily driven by rising energy costs and food prices, with food prices (excluding fresh items) increasing by 7.6% year-on-year in September [1] Economic Indicators - The overall consumer price index and core CPI both recorded a 2.9% increase, aligning with expectations but accelerating from the previous month [1] - Service sector prices increased by only 1.4%, significantly lower than the 4.2% rise in goods prices, highlighting a disparity in inflation across sectors [1] - Rice prices surged by 63% year-on-year in September, reaching the highest level since 2006, following last year's rice shortage [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan is set to hold a monetary policy meeting next week to consider the inflation data and discuss whether to maintain the current interest rate of 0.5% [1] - Experts predict that the inflation rate, excluding food, may meet or exceed the central bank's expectations, although the Bank of Japan has been cautious in its recent statements [1] - The central bank raised the short-term interest rate to 0.5% in January after ending its aggressive stimulus program last year, with potential for another rate hike in January 2024 [1]