美联储：准备金降至2.93万亿，或本月停缩表

Core Insights - The U.S. banking system's reserves have declined for two consecutive weeks, falling below $3 trillion, which is a critical factor for the Federal Reserve's decision on balance sheet reduction [1] - As of October 22, bank reserves decreased by approximately $59 billion, reaching $2.93 trillion, the lowest level since the week of January 1 [1] - The decline in reserves coincides with the Treasury's increased borrowing to rebuild cash balances after raising the debt ceiling in July, which has drawn liquidity from other liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet [1] Group 1 - The continuous drop in reserves indicates a tightening liquidity environment, impacting the operations of the financial system [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will discuss the future of its balance sheet in the upcoming meeting, with a high likelihood of policy rates being lowered to 3.75%–4% [1] - Strategists from firms like JPMorgan and Bank of America anticipate that the Fed will halt the reduction of its approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet this month, ending the liquidity withdrawal process [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction would stop when bank reserves are slightly above "ample" levels, potentially approaching this threshold in the coming months [1] - Rising money market rates and high repo rates suggest that reserves are no longer abundant, indicating that the financial system is nearing a state of scarcity [1]