9月CPI前瞻：通胀料将升温，但美联储不在乎？

Group 1: Inflation and CPI Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to October 24, with economists expecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [1] - Core inflation is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with August's figures [1][4] - The increase in CPI is attributed to tariffs raising goods prices, with specific categories like clothing and furniture experiencing slight inflation due to these tariffs [4][5] Group 2: Housing Costs and Economic Outlook - A decrease in housing costs may alleviate inflationary pressures, as mortgage rates have declined from over 7.0% in January to 6.3% in September [6] - The normalization of housing costs is expected to release more inventory and lower home prices, contributing to a potential easing of inflation [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The futures market indicates a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 96.1% chance of another cut in December [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to focus on the labor market's performance rather than solely on CPI data, as labor market weakness could exert downward pressure on prices [10]