Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-24 07:34Core Viewpoint - The report from Guoyuan International recommends a "buy" rating for China Resources Gas (01193), updating the profit forecast and setting a target price of HKD 26.6 per share, indicating a potential upside of 24% from the current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to have a dividend payout ratio of 53% in 2024, with a 20% year-on-year increase in interim dividends for 2025, and guidance indicating that total dividends will not decrease [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's retail natural gas volume is projected at 20.76 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decline of 0.69%, while the gas sales gross margin is expected to rise to CNY 0.55 per cubic meter, an increase of CNY 0.01 per cubic meter year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates low single-digit growth in total gas sales for 2025, with a year-on-year increase in gas sales gross margin [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Strategic Initiatives - The upcoming winter season is expected to see a rapid rebound in natural gas consumption due to a combination of El Niño and La Niña effects, leading to significant temperature fluctuations [1] - The company is actively pursuing hydrogen energy initiatives and developing green fuel injection businesses, as well as conducting research and development in ammonia fuel technology to foster new growth points in green energy [2] - The overall economic downturn has impacted the company's comprehensive services and energy business, leading to varying degrees of decline and slowdown [2] Group 3: Share Buyback and Market Confidence - The company has a share buyback plan in place, with the next two months identified as a critical window for repurchases, which is expected to enhance shareholder returns and boost market confidence [1]