Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-24 07:34Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857) with a target price of HKD 8.6 for H-shares and CNY 11.8 for A-shares, highlighting potential impacts from sanctions on oil supply chains and production interruptions [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Liao Yang Petrochemical accounts for 4% of China Petroleum's refining capacity, and sanctions may lead to the cancellation of oil supply transactions by suppliers and shipping companies, potentially causing production disruptions [1] - The company can pivot to non-Western supply chains for crude oil procurement and increase imports of Russian crude oil to mitigate some of the impacts from sanctions [1] - China Petroleum Hong Kong serves as a trading window for importing Russian crude oil, and sanctions may complicate transactions reliant on EU and financial intermediaries, but the company can maintain refining output by sourcing different grades of crude oil [1] Group 2: Market Impact - Oil prices will continue to be a major factor affecting the group, with an estimated EBITDA change of 13% for every USD 10 fluctuation in Brent crude oil prices, assuming other conditions remain constant [1] - In the event of intensified disruptions to Russian oil supply, short-term oil prices may rise to the USD 70 range [1]