Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-24 07:41Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has initiated a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857), setting a target price of HKD 8.6 for H-shares and RMB 11.8 for A-shares [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Liao Yang Petrochemical's capacity accounts for 4% of China Petroleum's refining capacity, and sanctions may lead to disruptions in crude oil supply transactions [1] - The company can pivot to non-Western supply chains for crude oil procurement and increase imports of Russian crude oil to mitigate some impacts [1] - China Petroleum Hong Kong serves as a trading window for importing Russian crude oil, and sanctions may complicate transactions reliant on EU and financial intermediaries [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil imports remains unclear, but the company can maintain refining output by sourcing different grades of crude oil [1] - Assuming adjustments in crude oil procurement can alleviate production disruption, oil prices will continue to be a major factor affecting the group [1] - Goldman Sachs estimates that for every $10 change in Brent crude oil prices, China Petroleum's EBITDA will change by 13% under unchanged conditions [1] - If disruptions in Russian oil supply worsen, short-term oil prices may rise to the $70 range [1]