专栏作家 | 美关税大棒扰动下全球贸易形势观察

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's shift towards protectionism and unilateral trade policies on global trade dynamics, highlighting the challenges and changes in trade forecasts from reputable organizations like WTO and UNCTAD [2][3]. WTO Insights - The WTO reports that the direct impact of tariff increases on global goods trade will have a lag effect, primarily manifesting in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [4]. - Despite the tariff increases, global goods trade growth for 2025 has been revised upward to 2.4%, significantly higher than the previous forecast of 0.9% [4]. - The service trade growth forecast has been adjusted downwards, with expected growth rates of 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, primarily due to a slowdown in transportation and tourism sectors [5]. - Different regions show varied performance in goods exports, with Asia leading at 10.4% growth in the first half of 2025, while Europe shows a slight decline of 0.3% [5]. UNCTAD Insights - UNCTAD indicates that global trade remains robust despite uncertainties, with a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter growth in goods and services trade in Q2 2025 [7]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly the electronics and automotive industries, continues to drive global trade growth [7]. - UNCTAD forecasts a continued increase in global trade for Q3 2025, with goods trade expected to grow by approximately 2.5% and services trade by about 4% [7]. - Negative factors affecting trade include ongoing U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which may alter regional trade dynamics [8]. - Positive factors include stronger economic growth and limited spillover effects from negative policies, supporting further trade growth [9]. China's Trade Performance - China's foreign trade has shown resilience, with a 4% year-on-year increase in goods trade in the first three quarters of 2025, despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs [10]. - Exports grew by 7.1% to 19.95 trillion yuan, while imports slightly decreased by 0.2% to 13.66 trillion yuan [10]. - The current global trade disruptions highlight the importance of predictable trade conditions, as emphasized by WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala [10].