黄金收评|通胀数据公布在即，黄金ETF华夏（518850）盘中转跌

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices fell below $4100 per ounce, with a decline exceeding 1.00%, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment towards gold and related assets [1] Market Performance - Gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.49% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) remaining flat, while the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) increased by 1.15% [1] Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. September CPI data is a focal point for the market, with expectations for an increase from 2.9% to 3.1%, while core CPI is anticipated to remain at 3.1% [1] - Despite employment data being a primary focus for the Federal Reserve, CPI data could lead to significant market fluctuations, especially after a three-week data vacuum [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is nearly 100%, suggesting that current data may not influence this decision [1] - Lower-than-expected CPI data could further stimulate rate cut expectations for the end of the year into mid-next year, potentially benefiting gold prices by weakening the dollar [1] Long-term Outlook on Gold - Huatai Securities emphasizes that gold remains the most suitable safe-haven asset, with consensus on the long-term allocation value of gold-related assets unchanged [1] - The current short-term decline in gold prices does not affect the long-term bullish outlook, and the pullback may present an opportunity for increased positions [1]