姗姗来迟的美国CPI：可能不及预期，但市场已经不关心

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week, leading to a "data famine" on Wall Street, with the delayed release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report expected to miss its optimal impact on the market [1] - The market anticipates a core CPI increase of 0.3% for September, slightly below expectations, with tariff pressures expected to raise prices in categories like communications and household goods [1][2] - Despite potential higher CPI data, the market's view on the Federal Reserve is unlikely to change significantly, with nearly 100% certainty that a 25 basis point rate cut will occur in the upcoming meeting [1][4] CPI Predictions - Predictions for the core CPI vary, with estimates ranging from 0.2% to 0.4%, but the majority expect a 0.3% increase [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the impact of tariffs will contribute approximately 0.07 percentage points to core inflation, primarily affecting sensitive categories [2][3] - Excluding tariff effects, underlying inflation pressures are diminishing, supported by a decrease in housing rent and labor market contributions [2] Tariff Impact and Market Sentiment - The uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of tariff transmission to consumer prices is a key focus for Wall Street [3] - BNP Paribas views the September CPI as a critical checkpoint, suggesting a downward risk due to moderate housing costs and limited tariff transmission [3] - Citi expects a core CPI increase of 0.28%, indicating that weakening labor and housing markets are reducing inflation risks, supporting further easing by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - The CPI report is unlikely to alter market expectations for a rate cut, with projections indicating a total of 54 basis points of cuts by year-end [4][5] - Market volatility is anticipated if CPI data exceeds expectations, with some analysts viewing it as a buying opportunity due to strong economic fundamentals [7] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal a divergence in views among officials regarding inflation and labor market conditions, with a consensus that inflation impacts are diminishing [5][7]