Amazon(US:AMZN) 智通财经网·2025-10-24 08:24Core Viewpoint - Bank of America anticipates strong performance in Amazon's retail segment and a more optimistic outlook for Amazon Web Services (AWS) ahead of the Q3 earnings report scheduled for October 30 [1] Group 1: Q3 Performance Expectations - Amazon's retail revenue for Q3 is expected to reach $179.2 billion, exceeding market expectations of $177.7 billion by 1% [2] - AWS revenue is projected at $32.3 billion, showing a year-over-year growth of 17.7%, which is in line with market expectations of $32.4 billion and a growth of 18.0% [2] - The expected GAAP operating income for Q3 is $20.4 billion, surpassing market expectations of $19.7 billion by 4% [2] Group 2: North America Retail Segment Insights - Credit and debit card data indicate an acceleration in online spending on Amazon during Q3, with expectations for North America retail growth to exceed market predictions by 1%-2% [3] - The impact of the "Prime Big Deal Days" event on Q4 is expected to be limited, although online spending during that week showed a solid year-over-year increase of 8.9% [3] Group 3: Q4 Outlook - The revenue guidance for Q4 is estimated to be between $202 billion and $209 billion, slightly below the market consensus of $208 billion, with an expected sequential growth rate of 15.5% [4] - Operating income guidance for Q4 is projected between $18 billion and $22 billion, compared to the market consensus of $23.7 billion [4] - Historical performance suggests that Amazon's Q4 results typically exceed guidance expectations, potentially leading to an upward adjustment in Q4 guidance based on Q3 performance [4] Group 4: AWS and Market Sentiment - There are expectations for a shift in communication tone regarding AWS in Q4, with a focus on AI capabilities and production capacity expected to be clearer by 2026 [5] - Amazon's stock has increased by 1% year-to-date, lagging behind the S&P 500's 15% rise, primarily due to investor concerns over AWS's AI positioning [5] - The projected EV/EBITDA multiple for Amazon in 2026 is 12.6, lower than the 10-year average of 16.4, indicating potential undervaluation compared to competitors [5][6]