百利好晚盘分析：形态已经修复 黄金可能反攻

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold experienced slight fluctuations with a noticeable slowdown in upward and downward momentum, indicating a potential short-term rebound [1] - September saw the largest monthly net inflow into global physical gold ETFs on record, with a total inflow of $26 billion in Q3, marking a historic high [1] - Central banks globally purchased 890 tons of gold in the first three quarters of this year, the second-highest level in history, despite being slightly lower than the same period in 2024 [1] - The attractiveness of gold as a reserve asset is increasing, especially as countries diversify their reserve assets following the U.S. tariff wars [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices continued to rebound, reaching a new high for the month, amid reports that the U.S. may intensify sanctions on Russia's oil industry [2] - The U.S. aims to weaken oil prices to create room for its actions without impacting domestic oil prices, which could also help boost President Trump's approval ratings [2] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices face significant resistance at previous highs, with a potential for a pullback [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [3] - The probability of a rate cut in December is estimated at 93.4%, indicating strong market expectations for continued easing [3] - The Federal Reserve may also halt its balance sheet reduction to prevent liquidity risks in the banking system [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index closed with a small gain, suggesting that short-term moving averages are providing effective support [5] - The index has broken through significant resistance levels, indicating a high probability of continued upward movement [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices closed with a significant gain, approaching previous highs and forming a continuation pattern [6] - The price has surpassed long-term moving averages, indicating a potential upward trend [6]