蓝莓外汇预测：美国9月通胀或升至3.1%，美元能否借势反弹？

Group 1 - The core inflation rate in the U.S. is expected to rise by 3.1% year-on-year in September, up from 2.9% in August, marking the highest level since May 2024 [1][3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meetings in October and December, with a 97% probability of rates dropping from the current range of 4%-4.25% to 3.5%-3.75% by year-end [1][3] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.4% for CPI and 0.3% for core CPI, with analysts noting that service prices, particularly housing, are cooling while goods inflation may accelerate due to tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is causing delays in the release of key economic data, making the September inflation data critical for Federal Reserve decision-making [4] - Analysts suggest that a significant upward surprise in the core CPI could lead to a reassessment of the likelihood of rate cuts in December, potentially strengthening the dollar against other major currencies [4] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for the dollar index (DXY), with key resistance levels identified at 99.50 and potential further gains towards 100.00 and 100.80 [4]