三周以来的首个重磅指引，美国CPI将在“数据荒野”中激起震荡

Core Insights - The U.S. inflation data is expected to show a year-on-year CPI increase of 3.1% for September, marking the highest inflation rate since May 2024 and indicating a fifth consecutive month of acceleration [1] - The core CPI is also anticipated to remain at 3.1%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - The CPI data may have a slightly higher sampling error due to increased reliance on online surveys during the government shutdown, which lasted three weeks [3] - Despite rising prices, lower rent increases may help to moderate the overall inflation rate [3] - The current inflation rate has decreased from 3% in January to 2.9% in August, but it still exceeds the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The recent rise in inflation highlights the impact of tariffs, which have contributed approximately 25-30 basis points to the core CPI year-on-year [6] - Economic growth expectations are being adjusted upward as inflation surpasses the Federal Reserve's target, with businesses warning of impending price increases [6] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, has risen from a recent low of 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August [8] Group 3: Market Reactions - The upcoming CPI report is expected to create significant market volatility, regardless of the data outcome, as it is the first major report since the government shutdown [10] - If inflation exceeds expectations, gold prices may face downward adjustments, while weaker inflation data could reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before year-end [11] - A significant deviation in core CPI from expectations could either alleviate or exacerbate market concerns regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve's policy space, impacting stock market performance, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors [11]