签下85亿矿产订单后，特朗普做梦都在笑：一年后中国会陷入大麻烦

Core Points - The US and Australia finalized a critical mineral framework agreement on October 20, 2025, involving an $8.5 billion project focused on the extraction and processing of rare earth and other strategic minerals [1] - The agreement aims to strengthen the supply chain, particularly in the rare earth sector, reducing US reliance on external sources [1][8] - The US Export-Import Bank is providing approximately $2.2 billion in financing to support specific projects under this agreement [1] Investment and Production - On the day of the agreement, the US announced plans to invest in a gallium refining plant in Western Australia with an annual capacity of 100 tons, expected to cover about 10% of global gallium supply [3] - The total investment from both US and Australian governments is projected to exceed $3 billion in the coming months [3] - The agreement supports the development of mineral deposits valued at $53 billion, including resources like rare earths, lithium, and nickel [3][8] Industry Context - Australia has significant rare earth mineral reserves but limited domestic processing capabilities [5] - The Kalgoorlie plant in Western Australia, set to begin operations in November 2024, will be Australia's first rare earth processing facility with a capacity of 30,000 tons per year [5] - Lynas Corporation's Malaysian facility is the second-largest rare earth separation plant globally, relying heavily on Chinese technology and equipment [5][6] Geopolitical Implications - The agreement is a response to ongoing US-China trade tensions, particularly regarding rare earth exports [8] - China currently dominates the rare earth market, controlling over 69% of global production and 80% of processing [6][8] - The US has threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese goods if China does not make concessions regarding rare earth exports [3][8]