德国经济好转推动，欧元区10月综合PMI升至一年半来最高水平，制造业PMI升至荣枯线，服务业强劲增长

Core Insights - Eurozone business activity unexpectedly accelerated in October, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to its highest level since May 2024, indicating stronger economic momentum than market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The October composite PMI for the Eurozone was reported at 52.2, up from 51.2 in September and significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 51, marking the tenth consecutive month above the neutral level [1][4]. - The increase in PMI was primarily driven by the services sector, particularly strong performance in Germany, which offset ongoing weakness in France [1][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The services PMI in the Eurozone rose from 51.3 in September to 52.6 in October, reaching a 14-month high, while manufacturing showed only a slight improvement, with manufacturing output growth at 51.1, up from 50.0 in September [5][8]. - The overall manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 in September to 50 in October, indicating a recovery from contraction to the neutral level [5][8]. Group 3: Employment Trends - Employment conditions showed a positive shift, with job growth resuming in October after a slight decline in September, and the pace of job creation in the services sector reached its fastest rate since June 2024 [8]. - However, manufacturing firms faced pressures to cut jobs at the fastest rate in four months due to weak demand [8]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite the positive PMI data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, reflecting cautious sentiment regarding future prospects [8]. - The Eurozone's economic growth remains significantly behind that of the U.S., with challenges stemming from France's fiscal and political uncertainties and structural pressures in the manufacturing sector [8]. Group 5: Central Bank Policy - Market consensus suggests that the resilience of the Eurozone economy and moderate inflation pressures in the services sector will lead the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rate policy [8]. - The inflation rate in the services sector remains moderate, with a slight increase in sales price inflation, but still close to long-term averages, which may support the ECB's stance against further rate cuts [8].