Group 1: Gold Market - Gold experienced slight fluctuations with a noticeable slowdown in upward and downward momentum, indicating a potential short-term rebound [1] - In September, global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly net inflow on record, totaling $26 billion for the third quarter, marking a record high [1] - Central banks globally purchased 890 tons of gold in the first three quarters of the year, the second-highest level in history, despite being slightly lower than the same period in 2024 [1] - The strong buying actions by central banks are seen as a robust support for gold, as countries accelerate diversification of reserve assets in response to U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices continued to rebound, reaching a new high for the month, with reports suggesting U.S. actions against oil-producing countries may aim to suppress oil prices [2] - The weakening of oil prices could serve dual purposes: to undermine U.S. adversaries and to bolster domestic support for President Trump [2] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices face significant resistance at previous highs, with potential for a pullback [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar and Federal Reserve - The U.S. dollar index is showing signs of weakness, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to further weaken the dollar [2] - The probability of a rate cut in October is estimated at 98.3%, with a 93.4% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [2] - The Federal Reserve may also announce a halt to its balance sheet reduction, as bank reserves have dropped significantly, raising concerns about liquidity risks [3] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. September CPI, expected at 3.1%, and the October preliminary PMI, anticipated at 52 [5][6] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October is projected to be 55, reflecting consumer confidence trends [6]
智昇黄金原油分析：形态已经修复 黄金可能反攻
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-24 10:20