人形机器人“只闻订单声，不见交付影”

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "left hand to right hand" orders in the robotics industry is a complex product of a specific stage of industrial development, rather than a simple dichotomy of good and bad [1][10] Group 1: Order Dynamics - The influx of large orders, particularly for humanoid robots, signifies a positive response for development, serving as a crucial leap into a virtuous cycle of growth [2] - These orders not only provide immediate financial boosts but also facilitate further technological iterations and real-world application testing, pushing the industry from "capable" to "excellent" [2][3] - However, some orders are merely "left hand to right hand" transactions, where companies create subsidiaries to procure their own products, raising concerns about the authenticity and delivery timelines of these orders [2][3] Group 2: Early Stage Validation - In the early stages of the industry, not all associated orders should be dismissed as mere "relationship-based" transactions, as they play a critical role in validating technology and reducing trial costs [3][6] - These orders allow companies to gather operational data and iterate product designs, acting as a "safety net" during the industry's growth phase [3][6] Group 3: Risks of Over-Reliance - A high proportion of associated orders could lead to risks, such as a lack of diverse market coverage and potential "false prosperity" that obscures real market demand [3][9] - Over-dependence on these orders may result in a lack of innovation and a focus on quantity over quality, which could hinder long-term technological advancements [9][10] Group 4: Historical Context - The current robotics industry mirrors the early stages of the electric vehicle sector, where associated orders were common and essential for overcoming initial hurdles [6][7] - These orders helped companies reduce costs and provided necessary data for product iteration, similar to the current dynamics in the robotics field [6][7] Group 5: Market Demand and Future Outlook - The true consumer demand for humanoid robots has not yet fully materialized, with the current focus primarily on B2B and government orders [8] - The key to industry growth lies in the C-end market, which remains constrained by technological limitations [8] Group 6: Caution Against Illusions of Prosperity - The reliance on associated orders must not lead to neglecting core technological development, as seen in the electric vehicle sector where some companies failed post-subsidy [9][10] - The industry must avoid creating an environment where companies focused on market orders and high R&D investments are undervalued compared to those relying on associated orders [9][10]