OEXN：市场关注美联储决策

Core Insights - The article discusses the persistent inflation in the U.S. and its implications for monetary policy, particularly the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in response to economic pressures [8][9]. Inflation Analysis - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates that the market is still adjusting to the dual impacts of tariffs and energy price fluctuations, with the overall inflation rate remaining high [8]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to rise significantly for the second consecutive month, driven by higher prices for goods affected by tariffs, especially imported clothing, food, and fuel [8]. - Despite the overall inflationary pressures, price increases in the services sector, particularly in air travel and accommodation, may slow down [8]. Core Inflation Trends - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected to show a moderate increase of around 0.3%, which, while above long-term targets, remains within a controllable range [8]. - This level of core inflation provides room for continued monetary policy easing, especially as corporate profit margins are under pressure and hiring is slowing [8]. Economic Implications - U.S. companies are facing challenges in passing on costs, with some manufacturers absorbing tariff costs while cutting back on hiring and delaying investments [9]. - This short-term strategy may alleviate profit pressures but could suppress consumer spending and employment growth in the long run, creating new economic concerns [9]. - Consumers are bearing part of the tax burden, which diminishes real purchasing power [9]. Market Outlook - The CPI data for September is expected to confirm the stubborn nature of U.S. inflation, but market reactions may be relatively muted [9]. - Investors are more focused on the Federal Reserve's decision-making in the upcoming meeting; if inflation remains around 3% while growth momentum weakens, rate cuts may be a more reasonable choice [9]. - For the forex market, this scenario suggests that the dollar may continue to face pressure, while risk assets could find short-term support [9]. Policy Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's statements and future policy guidance, as current inflation is driven by a combination of tariffs, energy prices, and supply chain adjustments [9]. - The flexibility of monetary policy will be crucial in determining future market directions in this complex environment [9].