停摆三周后首份重磅数据！美国9月CPI姗姗来迟：通胀或创17个月高点

Core Insights - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the September CPI inflation data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown, raising concerns about data accuracy and completeness [1][8] - The CPI data is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy considerations, particularly regarding potential interest rate cuts in late October [1][7] - Market expectations suggest that the September CPI will show a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, marking the highest level in 17 months [2][9] Economic Data and Predictions - Predictions indicate that the overall CPI will rise by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with core CPI expected to increase by 0.3% both month-over-month and year-over-year [2][10] - The summer saw an acceleration in CPI growth, with August recording the largest increase of the year, surpassing economists' expectations [6] - Analysts from Bank of America expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase in overall CPI, with core CPI remaining at 3.0%, slightly below market consensus [6][7] Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - The futures market indicates a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 96.1% chance of another cut in December [7] - Analysts believe that the upcoming CPI data will not contain information significant enough to alter the Federal Reserve's decision-making for October [7][10] - Concerns about the reliability of the CPI data have been raised due to the government shutdown, which has affected data collection processes [8][9] Expert Opinions - Economists from Moody's and Oxford Economics predict slight increases in CPI, with core CPI showing moderate growth due to ongoing tariff impacts and rising labor costs [9][10] - Analysts emphasize that the persistence of inflation is more related to tariff-related costs rather than demand-driven factors, supporting the Fed's inclination to continue rate cuts [7][9]