Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) Stock Price Prediction in 2030: Bull, Bear, & Baseline Forecasts (Oct 24)

Core Insights - Amazon.com Inc. has experienced significant growth since its IPO in 1997, with a stock price increase of over 294,600% and currently holding the fifth-largest market cap among publicly traded companies [3][4]. Historical Performance - From 2014 to 2024, Amazon's stock surged by more than 1,025%, rising from $19.94 to $223.75, with a notable increase of 150.70% from March 2020 to December 2024 [6]. - Revenue increased from $89 billion to $638 billion, a growth of over 616%, while net income grew from $0.241 billion to $59.2 billion, translating to a gain of 24,664.3% [7]. Key Drivers of Future Performance - E-commerce Success: Amazon accounted for 40% of all U.S. e-commerce sales in 2023, despite e-commerce representing only 15% of total retail sales [9]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS): AWS is the largest cloud provider globally, generating $107.6 billion in sales in 2024, but faces competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [10]. - Advertising Revenue: In 2024, Amazon's advertising revenue reached $56.2 billion, nearly doubling from the previous three years, and is expected to continue growing [11]. Stock Price Predictions for 2030 - Bull Case: Estimated stock price of $431, assuming AWS maintains an 18% CAGR, e-commerce achieves $30 billion in operating profits, and advertising grows at a 15% CAGR [12][13]. - Bear Case: Estimated stock price of $77, based on a lower P/E ratio reflecting a low-growth state despite continued net income growth [15]. - Baseline Case: Estimated stock price of $250, with revenue projected to rise from $710 billion in 2025 to $1.153 trillion by 2030, and net income growing from $48.9 billion to $110.7 billion [16][17].