美国9月CPI全线低于预期，美联储降息板上钉钉
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-10-24 12:56

Group 1 - The September CPI report indicates that both overall and core inflation metrics are below expectations, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for September is recorded at 3%, slightly up from 2.9% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January 2025, but below the market expectation of 3.1% [1] - The adjusted CPI month-on-month rate for September is 0.3%, which is lower than both market expectations and the previous value of 0.4% [1] Group 2 - The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate for September is also at 3%, lower than market expectations and the previous value of 3.1% [1] - The adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate for September is recorded at 0.2%, again below market expectations and the previous value of 0.3% [1] - Following the CPI data release, traders increased bets on two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations for further cuts in January [1] Group 3 - The CPI report was released despite the government shutdown, aimed at assisting the Social Security Administration in calculating cost-of-living adjustments for millions of beneficiaries [3] - The data for September was collected before the funding pause, ensuring its availability for analysis [3] - Economists noted that the gradual transmission effect of import tariffs has led to companies absorbing some tax burdens, with consumers estimated to have borne about 20% of the tariff costs [4] Group 4 - The increase in overall inflation compared to core inflation is attributed to a 4.1% rise in gasoline prices in September, which was the largest monthly contributor to the CPI [4] - Analysts suggest that the latest CPI report almost guarantees another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, supporting the view that inflation is under control [4] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a data blackout period ahead of the October 29 policy decision, relying on incomplete data due to the government shutdown [4]