“全球咖啡即将耗尽”！巴西局势恶化，阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - A severe supply crisis in the coffee market is emerging due to adverse weather conditions in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, pushing Arabica coffee futures prices to historic highs and raising concerns about a potential long-term shortage in global coffee supply [1][3]. Group 1: Price Surge and Market Impact - Arabica coffee futures prices surged nearly 4% to $4.36 per pound, setting a new record high, surpassing the previous record of $4.2995 per pound established in February [1][3]. - The current price increase is driven by renewed fears that Brazil's adverse weather could significantly impact its coffee exports, particularly affecting high-end varieties used by major brands like Starbucks and Dunkin' [3][4]. Group 2: Supply Crisis in Brazil - Brazil's supply issues are worsening, with reports of severe drought and extreme heat damaging coffee trees and affecting the flowering and fruiting process [4]. - The initial hopes for recovery from the first flowering of the 2026 coffee crop have been dashed due to ongoing adverse weather, leading to a significant reduction in Brazil's coffee exports, which have dropped by approximately 8 to 9 million bags compared to the same period last year [4][5]. Group 3: Global Inventory and Demand - Major importing countries are facing tight coffee inventories, with stocks at key ports sufficient for only 3 to 4 weeks, primarily in Europe, while the U.S. market is experiencing physical supply shortages [5]. - The current situation is described as an "unprecedented supply gap," the likes of which have not been seen in over 315 years of commercial coffee exports [5]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Market fundamentals suggest that coffee prices may continue to rise, especially as the Northern Hemisphere enters the critical winter consumption season, intensifying demand for physical coffee beans [6]. - It is anticipated that even if futures prices experience temporary corrections, actual coffee trading prices could be pushed up to the range of $5 to $6 per pound due to extreme supply scarcity [6].