3 Forces That Could Shake Tesla Stock

Core Insights - Tesla has experienced significant stock price declines historically, with drops exceeding 30% within two months occurring eight times, leading to substantial market value loss [1] - The company faces increasing competition, particularly from BYD, which has surpassed Tesla in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales as of Q3 2025 [5] - Tesla's operating income decreased by 40% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with market share falling from 49% in Q3 2024 to 41% despite record deliveries [5] - Regulatory risks are present, particularly concerning the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, with a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) probe involving 2.88 million Teslas [5] - Raw material costs are rising, with lithium prices increasing by 4.62% year-over-year, while nickel is experiencing oversupply [5] - Tesla's revenue growth has been negative at -1.6% over the last twelve months, with a free cash flow margin of approximately 7.1% [6] - The stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 285.3, indicating a premium valuation compared to the S&P [6] - Historical market corrections for Tesla include a 53.5% drop in 2018 and a 60.6% decline during the Covid pandemic, highlighting vulnerability to market conditions [7] - Stock prices can decline even in favorable market conditions due to earnings reports and business updates [8] Financial Performance - Tesla's operating income for Q3 2025 decreased by 40% year-over-year [5] - Revenue growth has been -1.6% over the last twelve months, with an average growth of 9.3% over the past three years [6] - Free cash flow margin stands at approximately 7.1%, with an operating margin of 5.1% over the last twelve months [6] Competitive Landscape - BYD has overtaken Tesla in global BEV sales, reporting 1.61 million units compared to Tesla's 1.22 million units as of Q3 2025 [5] - Tesla's market share has declined from 49% in Q3 2024 to 41% in Q3 2025 [5] Regulatory and Cost Challenges - The NHTSA probe involves 2.88 million Teslas concerning FSD traffic violations, with six accidents resulting in injuries [5] - Lithium prices have increased by 4.62% year-over-year to 74,800 CNY/T, while nickel is priced at $15,328 USD/T and is experiencing oversupply [5]