马丁·沃尔夫拉响警报：美国或面临金融危机与通胀并存

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. may face a scenario of simultaneous financial crisis and inflation in the coming years, with significant risks already evident [1] Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a highly turbulent phase, with risks expected to escalate further in 2026, particularly due to accumulating financial instability factors [1] - The trade war initiated by the U.S. is stabilizing, but global trade growth may slow down [1] Dollar Dominance - The dominance of the U.S. dollar is under threat, with high public debt, large fiscal deficits, and elevated interest rates in developed countries contributing to financial system instability [1][2] - A consensus that "the dollar is no longer safe" could lead to capital flight from dollar assets, significantly increasing the prices of safe-haven assets like gold [2] Impact of AI - Artificial intelligence is causing profound technological changes, particularly impacting knowledge workers, which may lead to significant social and political consequences [2] Inflation Risks - The combination of fiscal and labor market policies in the U.S., especially measures limiting immigration, could create a highly expansionary macro environment, significantly raising inflation [2] - Current U.S. policies resemble those of the late 1960s and early 1970s, which led to significant inflationary pressures [3] Financial Deregulation - The financial deregulation policies promoted by the Trump administration, including a lenient stance on cryptocurrencies, are reminiscent of past risks that led to prolonged instability [3] Crisis Timing and International Cooperation - The exact timing of a potential U.S. financial crisis is uncertain, with possibilities ranging from two to three years or longer [3] - There are no signs of a reversal in the current political landscape, with a lack of tightening in fiscal or monetary policies and insufficient efforts to restore international confidence [3]