Here's How Eli Lilly's Oncology Drugs Are Poised Ahead of Q3 Earnings

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) is a market leader in the GLP-1 segment with its tirzepatide medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, while also generating significant revenue from its oncology franchise, which accounted for over 15% of its first-half 2025 revenues, growing approximately 10% year over year [1] Oncology Sales Performance - The oncology unit's sales for Q3 2025 are estimated at $2.58 billion, reflecting over 15% year-over-year growth, primarily driven by the blockbuster breast cancer drug Verzenio, which saw increased demand and higher prices, despite currency headwinds and competitive pressures [2][9] - Sales from RET inhibitor Retevmo and lymphoma drug Jaypirca are expected to positively contribute to growth, although this may be partially offset by declining sales of older drugs like Alimta and Cyramza due to competition from immuno-oncology agents [3] New Drug Launch - Eli Lilly received FDA approval for its new breast cancer drug Inluriyo in late September, but the launch is expected to occur in the coming weeks, meaning no sales contribution from this drug in Q3 [4] Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting towards Lilly's oncology unit, which is demonstrating consistent double-digit growth, potentially reassuring investors that the company's earnings are not solely reliant on the obesity segment ahead of Q3 results on October 30 [5] Competitive Landscape - Major competitors in the oncology space include AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer, with AstraZeneca's oncology sales accounting for nearly 43% of total revenues and growing 11% in the first half of 2025, driven by drugs like Tagrisso and Lynparza [6] - Merck's Keytruda accounted for over 48% of its total revenues in the first half of 2025, while Pfizer's oncology revenues grew 9% operationally, driven by drugs like Xtandi and Lorbrena [7] Valuation and Estimates - Eli Lilly's shares are currently trading at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.99, which is higher than the industry average of 15.56 but below its five-year mean of 34.54 [10] - EPS estimates for 2025 have decreased from $23.15 to $22.86, and for 2026 from $30.82 to $30.78 over the past 30 days [12]