全面低于预期！美国9月CPI同比上涨3%，市场笃定年内再降息两次

Core Insights - The latest inflation data from the U.S. indicates a continued slowdown in price increases, providing the Federal Reserve with new opportunities to consider interest rate cuts [1][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 3% year-over-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9% [1][3] - Core CPI also increased by 3% year-over-year, matching the previous value but below expectations [3] Inflation Details - Gasoline prices were the largest contributor to inflation, rising by 4.1%, while overall inflation pressures remained moderate [6] - Food prices increased by 0.2%, and overall goods prices rose by 0.5% [6] - Year-over-year, energy prices rose by 2.8%, and food prices increased by 3.1% [6] - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, only rose by 0.2% for the month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped, while stock index futures, particularly the Nasdaq, saw a near 1% increase [5] - U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply, and spot gold prices rose by over $20 [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice more this year, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [9][10] - Analysts believe the report will encourage the Fed to continue its rate-cutting plans, prioritizing labor market stability over inflation targets [9] Concerns and Risks - Some analysts express concerns that President Trump's tariff policies could trigger a new wave of inflationary pressures [11] - Federal Reserve officials are worried that the slowdown in hiring may spread, despite low layoff numbers [11]