国际油价大涨，难阻今年整体下跌态势｜油市跌宕

Core Insights - International oil prices surged to a two-week high, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 5.62% to $61.79 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 5.43% to $65.99 per barrel [1] - Despite the recent increase, the overall trend for international oil prices this year has been downward, with prices frequently dipping below the critical $60 per barrel mark [1] - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term upward pressure on oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and sanctions, long-term bearish pressures are expected to manifest in the first half of next year [1][7] Supply Concerns from Sanctions - The recent rise in international oil prices is primarily attributed to the U.S. government's sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, which have raised market supply concerns [2] - The sanctions are seen as a significant escalation in Washington's pressure on Moscow, increasing the likelihood of major disruptions in Russian oil production and exports [2] European Sanctions - The European Union has also imposed sanctions on Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas and travel restrictions on Russian diplomats [5] - However, there are doubts about the effectiveness of these sanctions, as previous sanctions have had limited impact on Russian oil exports [5] Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, international oil prices have experienced a decline, with Brent crude futures averaging over a 10% drop compared to last year, primarily due to increased supply [6] - The global oil supply is expected to remain tight in 2024, but a shift to a more competitive production strategy by OPEC+ starting in 2025 may lead to oversupply [6] Price Support Levels - The $60 per barrel price point is considered a critical support level, as it is essential for the fiscal balance of many Middle Eastern countries [7] - Analysts suggest that if sanctions remain in place, oil prices may continue to trend higher in the short term, but oversupply pressures could lead to a weaker market in the long run [7] Future Price Projections - Long-term projections indicate that the bearish pressures in the oil market may become more pronounced in the first half of next year, with OPEC+ potentially increasing production to address supply shortages [7] - UBS forecasts that Brent crude prices will stabilize between $60 and $70 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs predicts a further decline, potentially reaching $52 per barrel by Q4 of next year [7]