Core Insights - US consumer confidence continued to decline in October, remaining at a five-month low with the University of Michigan's final consumer confidence index at 53.6, down 1.5 points from September and significantly lower than the market expectation of 55, representing a 24% decrease year-over-year [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer sentiment index is currently 36.4% below the average level since 1978, indicating extremely low consumer sentiment [1] - The consumer current conditions index (CECI) fell for the fourth consecutive month to 58.6, marking a three-year low with a month-over-month decline of 3.0% and a year-over-year drop of 9.7%, which was weaker than the market forecast of 61 [3] - The consumer expectations index (CEI) also declined for four months in a row, reporting 50.3, the lowest since May, with a month-over-month decrease of 2.7% and a significant year-over-year contraction of 32.1%, falling short of the market expectation of 51.2 [3] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation Expectations - Despite a slight improvement in personal financial situations, expectations for future finances have weakened, with consumers perceiving no significant change in overall economic conditions compared to the previous month [3] - Inflation and high prices remain overwhelming sources of pressure for consumers, with one-year inflation expectations slightly decreasing from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations rose from 3.7% to 3.9%, still below the highs of April [3] - The current consumer sentiment index is lower than the levels observed at the onset of the last six US economic recessions, indicating that consumer sentiment is in a typical pre-recession pessimistic range [3][4]
美国消费者信心深陷极端悲观区域 已跌至经济衰退期间水平
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-24 15:21