美国债务已经达到38万亿美元，当美国债务达到40万亿美元的时候就会出现重大问题，40万亿美元是个临界点

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion and is projected to reach $40 trillion soon, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and market confidence [1][3][11] Debt Growth and Ownership - Over the past decade, U.S. debt has doubled from approximately $17 trillion in 2013 to $38 trillion, with over $6 trillion added during Biden's administration [3][5] - The proportion of U.S. debt held by foreign investors has fallen below 30%, with Japan, the UK, and China reducing their holdings [3][5] Interest Payments and Budget Concerns - In 2024, the U.S. is expected to spend $1.2 trillion solely on interest payments, which is comparable to military and social security expenditures combined [5][6] - The U.S. debt has increased significantly compared to GDP growth, with debt rising over 70 times since the 1970s while GDP has only increased by about 20 times [6] Future Projections and Risks - By 2030, social security and healthcare spending may consume over 60% of the federal budget, necessitating tax increases that could provoke backlash from businesses and the middle class [8][10] - The Congressional Budget Office has warned that if current trends continue, the debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 120% by 2033, a level not seen since World War II [8][10] Market Confidence and Systemic Risks - The psychological threshold of $40 trillion could undermine investor confidence, leading to a situation where no one is willing to purchase U.S. debt, regardless of interest rates [11] - The current fiscal strategy resembles a cycle of borrowing to pay off existing debt, raising concerns about long-term sustainability [8][10] Misallocation of Funds - The increase in debt has not been directed towards infrastructure, education, or inflation control, but rather has been consumed by fiscal deficits and financial assets [13]