今明两年不买房，五年后是买不起还是随便挑？答案已经清晰明了

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with both new home sales and prices declining, leading to a complex outlook for the future of the market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since April 2023, the real estate market has shown a clear downward trend, with transaction area and value both decreasing [1] - By July 2023, the prices of second-hand homes in 100 cities have been falling for 15 consecutive months, with 96 cities reporting price declines in July alone [1] - In major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale reached nearly 1.99 million in June 2023, a 25% increase compared to January [1] Group 2: Diverging Opinions - Optimists believe the current market adjustment presents a rare opportunity, supported by government policies, and see it as a good time to invest [2] - Pessimists argue that government support will only provide short-term relief and that a long-term downward trend is inevitable, suggesting that waiting to buy may be wise [3] Group 3: Factors Influencing the Market - The impact of the three-year pandemic has severely affected residents' purchasing power, leading to more cautious and rational buying behavior [4][6] - The demand for first-time home purchases is declining, with over 41.5% of families owning two or more properties, reducing the necessity for young people to buy homes [6] - The long-term adjustment phase of housing prices is evident, with the previous "profit effect" disappearing and calls for property tax increasing, prompting speculators to exit the market [6] Group 4: Future Housing Supply - The supply of affordable housing is expected to increase significantly, with more cities accelerating the construction of affordable rental and shared ownership housing to meet the needs of low-income groups [7] - The influx of affordable housing will likely divert demand away from the commercial housing market, making it a niche market [7]