英国央行刊发《All in芯片！AI相关资产估值崩塌是否会引发金融稳定性后果？》

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England warns that the revaluation of AI-related stocks could impact financial stability through various channels, including underperformance in AI capabilities and profitability [1][8]. Group 1: AI Stock Valuation and Market Impact - The S&P 500's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) is nearing levels seen during the internet bubble, with median expected P/E ratio for AI stocks at 31 times compared to 19 times for the S&P 500 overall [2][4]. - AI-related stocks accounted for approximately 26% of the S&P 500 at the end of 2022, projected to rise to 44% by October 2025 [4]. Group 2: Infrastructure Investment and Financing Needs - Significant capital investment, estimated in the trillions, is required to enhance AI capabilities and meet growing demand, with a large portion expected to be financed through debt [5][6]. - By 2030, data centers capable of AI processing will require $5.2 trillion in capital expenditures, with external financing playing a crucial role in meeting these needs [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Stability Risks - The potential decline in AI asset prices could affect financial stability through various channels, including direct credit exposure of banks to AI companies and the impact on commodity markets [8][9]. - Historical examples indicate that leverage within the financial system could exacerbate risks associated with falling AI asset prices [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Implications - A downturn in AI asset prices may negatively impact U.S. economic growth, particularly through reduced business investment and consumption effects [9]. - The anticipated scale of debt financing for AI and related energy infrastructure investments could heighten financial stability risks, with banks facing direct and indirect exposure [9][10].