楼市进入筑底关键期：改善性需求成为新房市场支撑，“强者恒强”分化格局愈发清晰

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has entered a critical bottoming phase since the second half of 2021, driven by intensive policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [1][3] - The cumulative sales of new residential properties during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are projected to reach approximately 5 billion square meters [1][2] Market Changes - The supply-demand relationship in the real estate market has shifted, with a significant increase in the stock of existing homes, leading to first-time buyers predominantly opting for second-hand homes, while new homes are increasingly catering to improvement needs [2][5] - The sales area of new residential properties from January to September 2025 was 6.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, but the decline has narrowed by 11.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [5] Policy Impact - Since the second half of 2021, the real estate market has been in a continuous adjustment phase, with a decline in new residential property sales. However, recent policies have aimed to stabilize the market [3][5] - The government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market in its work report for the 2025 National Congress, indicating a sustained commitment to policy support [3] Market Resilience - The second-hand housing market has shown greater resilience, with a 10% year-on-year increase in transaction volume in key cities from January to July 2025, and second-hand home transactions accounted for 68% of total transactions by July, a record high [5][9] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, second-hand home prices have been on a downward trend for 41 consecutive months [5] Market Segmentation - A clear "stronger stronger" market segmentation is emerging, with first-tier cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new home prices, while second and third-tier cities face price declines [10][12] - The investment strategies of real estate companies are increasingly focused on core cities, with significant competition for high-quality land parcels leading to record land prices in cities like Shanghai and Beijing [13][15] Demand Trends - Improvement demand has become the core support for the new home market, with larger unit types (120-144 square meters) accounting for 30% of transactions in key cities from January to July 2025 [16][20] - High-end market performance has been notable, with significant sales in luxury projects, indicating a release of demand from high-net-worth individuals [19][20] Future Outlook - The upcoming report titled "Exploring the 'Golden Pit' of the Non-Restricted Cycle Real Estate Market" is set to be released on October 30, 2025, providing further insights into the industry [20]