不是36万亿而是230万亿？美国或已歇业，美元真成假钞了吗

Core Insights - Investors are facing an unprecedented financial storm, particularly concerning the unsustainable level of U.S. national debt, which has reached $37.5 trillion by September 2025 [2] Debt Situation - The U.S. national debt has ballooned to $37 trillion, with a staggering increase of $1 trillion in just nine months [5] - By 2025, $9.2 trillion of debt is due, representing 25.4% of total outstanding debt, which will need refinancing in a high-interest environment of 4.25%, leading to an additional $184 billion in annual interest expenses [4] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2052, the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 185%, with the debt potentially exceeding $50 trillion by 2030 [4] Interest Payments - Interest payments on U.S. debt are projected to exceed $1.3 trillion in 2025, surpassing the combined total of defense spending ($800 billion) and healthcare expenditures [4] - Interest payments have become the second-largest federal expenditure, following Social Security [4] Economic Implications - The high-interest rate environment is exacerbating the debt crisis, creating a vicious cycle of increased borrowing leading to higher interest rates and heavier interest burdens [4] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of 2025 reached $1.3 trillion, with an annual estimate of over $1.9 trillion, while the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" is expected to reduce revenue by $4.5 trillion over the next decade [4] Global Financial Impact - The U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from 71% in 1999 to 57.4% in 2024, with projections indicating it may fall below 50% [6] - The rise of alternative payment systems, such as the Russian SPFS and China's CIPS, is gaining traction as countries seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar [7] Public Debt Burden - Each American citizen is estimated to carry a debt burden of $108,000, with total household debt reaching $18.4 trillion in 2025 [8] - The percentage of overdue debts has increased from 2.8% to 3% in the second quarter of 2025 [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider tangible assets as a hedge against the declining value of the dollar, with gold prices rising by 15% and silver by 70% in 2025 [8] - Bitcoin has also seen a resurgence, reaching $83,000, being referred to as "trust currency" by some analysts [8]