美政府关门前最后一份官方通胀报告揭晓，9月CPI告诉我们什么？

Core Insights - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicates that inflation remains high but shows signs of moderation in certain key areas, despite being well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2][5] - The market anticipates a near-certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with increased probabilities for another cut in December [2][6] Inflation Data Summary - The September CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, while core CPI rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, all slightly below market consensus expectations [1][2] - Key categories such as housing costs, which account for one-third of the CPI, showed minimal growth, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [5][6] Impact of Tariffs and Policies - The effects of tariffs and immigration policies are beginning to manifest, with household goods prices rising by 3% year-over-year, the highest since mid-2023, and audio-visual equipment prices increasing by 1.6%, the highest since 2021 [5][6] - The "super core" service inflation, excluding housing costs, accelerated by 0.35%, marking one of the highest levels this year [5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. Treasury prices surged, and stock futures rose, with major U.S. indices reaching all-time highs [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the CPI data may weaken the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance against interest rate cuts, allowing for a potential 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting [6][7] Government Shutdown Implications - The report was compiled before the government shutdown, which has led to warnings that the October CPI report may not be published, marking a historical first for the absence of official CPI data [3][8] - The White House has indicated that the inability to collect new price information due to funding shortages could create confusion for businesses, markets, households, and the Federal Reserve [8]