Tesla Analyst Says Elon Musk Will 'Be Heavy On Optimism And Light On Truth' For Q3 Earnings Call

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc is expected to report third-quarter financial results soon, with a bearish outlook from GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson, who maintains a Sell rating and a price target of $19.05 [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Insights - Johnson anticipates that CEO Elon Musk will be "heavy on the optimism" during the earnings call, particularly ahead of the Nov. 1 shareholder vote on Musk's pay package [2][4]. - Despite being bearish, Johnson believes that consensus estimates for Tesla's third-quarter results may be "too conservative" [3]. - The analyst suggests that the narrative Musk presents during the call will significantly influence Tesla's stock performance post-earnings, rather than the actual financial numbers [3][4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Investors are optimistic about Tesla's performance, with prediction markets indicating an 80% chance that the company will beat third-quarter earnings per share estimates [6]. - Tesla previously reported record third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 vehicles and production of 447,450 vehicles, contributing to positive market sentiment [5][6]. - Over $535,000 has been bet on prediction market Polymarket regarding Tesla's ability to exceed earnings expectations [6].