今明两年买房，5年后会亏得一塌糊涂？曹德旺三句话说清楚了

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with various opinions emerging regarding its future trajectory. Notably, entrepreneur Cao Dewang has pointed out that the intrinsic value of real estate is overestimated, predicting inevitable price declines if current trends continue [1][3]. Market Trends - Since 2022, the number of cities experiencing falling housing prices has been on the rise. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of November, 51 out of 70 major cities saw a year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices, while 64 cities reported a drop in second-hand housing prices. Even first-tier cities are witnessing a comprehensive price drop, with only a few second-tier cities like Changsha and Chengdu maintaining stable prices [3]. Causes of Decline - The decline in the real estate market can be attributed to two main factors. First, the repeated impact of the pandemic and a sluggish economy have led to widespread layoffs and salary cuts, resulting in lower income expectations and diminished purchasing intent among buyers. This shrinking market demand has directly contributed to price adjustments. Second, the overall cooling of the real estate market has prompted speculators to sell off properties, with the number of second-hand homes listed for sale in key cities exceeding 100,000 units as of October, including 250,000 in Chongqing and over 130,000 in Beijing [5]. Government Response - In response to the market downturn, local governments are implementing measures to stabilize the real estate market. These include lifting restrictions on purchases and sales, providing cash subsidies to buyers, and relaxing housing fund loan limits. Additionally, banks have reduced the interest rates on first-time home loans from 5.8% to 4.2% and lowered the down payment ratio from 30% to 20%. The central bank has also eased financing restrictions for developers, allowing them to raise funds through bonds, equity, and loans [7]. Diverging Opinions - Market participants are divided in their perspectives. Proponents of the market believe that the current favorable policies present an excellent opportunity to buy at the bottom, anticipating a rebound in housing prices. Conversely, skeptics argue that the downward trend is established, warning that purchasing now could lead to significant losses in five years, similar to the experiences of buyers in the Beijing suburban area in late 2017, where prices fell by 50% or more [9].