2万亿美元债市告急，美CPI推迟风险堪比美国债务上限危机

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is pushing the $2 trillion Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market into unprecedented territory, as the inability to release October's inflation data directly impacts TIPS and inflation swap markets [1][2] - The reliance of TIPS on Consumer Price Index (CPI) data means that the absence of this data could lead to significant market disruptions, with potential activation of a "backup plan" for calculating inflation adjustments [2][3] Group 1: Market Impact - The inability to publish October's CPI data could trigger the use of an estimated CPI value based on the last 12 months' changes, which would not be retroactively adjusted even if actual data is released later [2][3] - Concerns over data quality are already affecting investor demand for TIPS, as investors doubt their ability to hedge against real inflation effectively [5][6] - Despite the uncertainty, the market remains relatively calm, with some analysts attributing the weak performance of TIPS to broader factors such as falling oil prices [7][8] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The current situation is compared to the "debt ceiling crisis," indicating a critical moment for market participants to monitor [1][3] - Investors are currently not in a state of panic, as the outflow of funds from TIPS-related ETFs has not significantly impacted the overall size of these funds [7] - Experts suggest that as long as price data remains free from political manipulation, the overall market dynamics may not change drastically [8]