特朗普一边宣称稀土过剩，一边争夺钨矿资源，暴露能源安全危机

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting actions of the U.S. government regarding rare earth elements, highlighting a significant deal with Australia while simultaneously imposing tariffs on Kazakhstan for a tungsten mine, revealing underlying anxieties and a reactive global strategy [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Strategy - On October 20, the U.S. signed an $8.5 billion agreement with Australia, with Trump claiming that the U.S. would soon have an abundance of rare earths [3]. - Despite this agreement, the U.S. still relies on China for the processing of rare earth minerals extracted from its only domestic mine, Mountain Pass, indicating a paradox in its strategy [5][9]. - The U.S. faces a significant challenge in establishing a complete rare earth supply chain, as it lacks the capability to efficiently refine these materials, a problem shared by its partners [5][11]. Group 2: Challenges in U.S. Rare Earth Production - The U.S. has experienced a decline in its rare earth industry since the 1980s due to various factors, including environmental costs and industrial transfer, leading to a fragmented supply chain [11][15]. - Experts estimate that it could take 10 to 20 years for the U.S. to establish a secure and independent rare earth supply chain, contradicting Trump's optimistic timeline of one year [13][19]. - The U.S. faces high production costs due to strict environmental regulations, which further complicates its ability to compete with China's established low-cost production [15][19]. Group 3: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China currently produces 72% of the world's rare earths and has developed a comprehensive ecosystem for rare earth production, including multiple production bases [21][23]. - Chinese companies accounted for 61% of global rare earth patent applications in 2024, indicating a strong position in both existing and emerging technologies [23][25]. - China is also innovating in rare earth extraction technologies, aiming to reduce separation costs by 15%, showcasing its commitment to continuous improvement [25][28]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The U.S. is likely to continue its political posturing and seek more partnerships, but the long-term balance of power appears to favor China, as evidenced by Kazakhstan's prioritization of cooperation with China [29][31]. - Historical examples, such as Japan's long struggle to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths, illustrate the challenges of establishing alternative supply chains [33]. - The article concludes that the U.S. is masking its strategic weaknesses with tactical displays, while China's strength lies in its systematic development and respect for market dynamics [37].