明年起买房还是卖房？马云和曹德旺给出忠告：再等很危险

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with predictions indicating a continued decline in property values and a shift towards housing as a necessity rather than an investment opportunity [1][13]. Market Performance - From January to May 2025, the national sales area of new commercial housing was 350 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while sales revenue was 3.4 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year [4]. - The prices of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities have been declining for 28 consecutive months, marking an unprecedented situation in the past two decades [6]. Market Drivers - Changes in population structure are a fundamental driver, with urban housing ownership rates reaching 96%, and 42% of families owning two or more properties, indicating that housing is no longer a scarce commodity [7]. - Policy shifts since 2019 have emphasized "housing for living, not for speculation," with recent government reports focusing on stabilizing the housing market and promoting affordable housing [7]. - The government plans to introduce 1.2 million units of affordable housing annually over the next five years, which will divert demand from the commercial housing market [7]. Financing Environment - The tightening of financing conditions is significantly impacting the market, with major real estate companies facing a debt repayment peak in 2025, totaling approximately 3 trillion yuan [8]. - Many developers are resorting to price reductions to recover funds, indicating a drastic shift in market dynamics [8]. Future Market Outlook - Predictions suggest that the national sales area of commercial housing may continue to decline by about 6% in 2026, with a potential stabilization in optimistic scenarios due to policy implementations [9]. - In major cities, property prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with annual growth rates around 2%, while many third and fourth-tier cities may face greater downward pressure [9]. Investment Perspective - The notion that cash is more reliable than property is gaining traction, as the appreciation potential of real estate diminishes [9]. - The cost of holding properties is increasing, particularly for families with multiple properties, as property tax trials may expand in the coming years [9]. Opportunities - New rental housing projects in core cities are emerging as potential growth points in the real estate sector, supported by government initiatives [10].