还是得听劝，黄金这一波涨跌，普通人还是没有挣到认知以外的钱

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by a combination of risk aversion, speculative capital, and strong industrial demand, leading to significant market volatility and potential pitfalls for retail investors [5][6][10][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices have surpassed $4,050 per ounce, while silver has reached $48.3, both hitting historical records [5]. - Trading volume for gold futures increased by 40% in one day, and silver saw a weekly increase of 15% [5]. - The U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tensions have contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell below 90, a three-year low [8]. Group 2: Speculative Behavior - In the COMEX silver futures market, the spot inventory has dropped to 8,900 tons, a five-year low, while speculative long positions surged to 38,000 contracts, with leverage reaching 63% [10]. - The silver futures premium has risen to 8.7%, indicating a market distortion due to speculative activities [10]. - Retail investors are engaging in high-frequency trading, with an average turnover rate of 36 times per year, leading to significant transaction costs that erode their capital [18]. Group 3: Industrial Demand - The International Energy Agency projects that global photovoltaic installations will exceed 600 GW in 2025, increasing silver consumption in solar cells by 37% [11]. - Despite the rising demand, global silver mine production has remained stagnant at 25,000 tons for three consecutive years, creating a supply-demand gap of 8,000 tons [13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Investment Strategy - Historical data shows that gold has not consistently maintained its purchasing power, with a significant decline observed over 200 years [15]. - The average annual return on gold from 2000 to 2025 is 6.2%, which, after accounting for inflation, results in a net return of only 2.1% [22]. - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, with gold serving as a stabilizer rather than a primary growth engine, and a suggestion to limit gold holdings to 20% of total investments [25].