【UNforex财经事件】通胀数据疲软 美债收益率下滑美元承压

Group 1: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The overall CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [1] - The market perceives that the Federal Reserve has likely concluded its rate hike cycle, with nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, marking a recent low, and the yield curve indicating increased expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in October is a focal point for the market, with a high probability of confirming a dovish stance, which may put further pressure on the dollar and lead to increased inflows into gold and commodities [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and economic data visibility continues to affect market volatility and investor sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Market Insights - The rise in rate cut expectations supports gold prices, suggesting potential low-positioning opportunities while monitoring short-term volatility from Fed officials' comments [2] - The dollar faces short-term downward pressure, with trading opportunities in the euro against the dollar and dollar against yen, recommending cautious trading strategies [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields provides some support for the stock market, but overall risk appetite remains constrained by policy uncertainties [2][3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to rising inventories and demand concerns, with OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical situations being key variables to watch [3]