中国施行稀土管控后：俄罗斯猛砸7000亿挖稀土

Core Insights - Russia plans to invest over 700 billion rubles (approximately 63 billion yuan) in the construction of a key metal deep processing cluster in Siberia, aiming to establish a comprehensive ecosystem integrating science, education, industry, and investment, marking a significant move to challenge China's dominance in the global rare earth supply chain [1][3]. Investment and Infrastructure - The project will be located in the Tomsk and Yakutia regions, which house the world's largest Tomtor rare earth deposit (over 150,000 tons of yttrium rare earth) and are near Siberia's hydropower base, providing cheap electricity for energy-intensive rare earth smelting [3]. - The first phase of the project is expected to create 3,500 jobs and increase annual rare earth production to 50,000 tons by 2030, with over 60% being high-purity rare earth oxides [3]. Technological Development - Russia's rare earth industry faces technological challenges, relying on outdated extraction methods with a recovery rate of only 65%, compared to China's 92% [5]. - The project adopts a "government platform, industry-academia-research collaboration" model, involving 12 leading companies, including Rusal and Norilsk Nickel, with the first five rare earth refining plants set to be operational by 2026 [5][6]. Strategic Partnerships - The Russian government is investing in infrastructure, including railways, roads, and power networks, to address logistical challenges posed by the Tomtor mine's distance from rail lines [6]. - Funding includes 60 billion rubles from the federal budget, along with subsidized loans and R&D grants [6]. - Russia is seeking technical cooperation with "friendly countries" like Belarus and India to overcome Western patent barriers in rare earth separation technology [6]. Global Supply Chain Impact - Russia's ambitions are reshaping the global supply chain, with a focus on pragmatic cooperation with China, which controls 60% of rare earth refining capacity [8]. - Russia aims to increase its rare earth production sixfold by 2030, but technology transfer from China is crucial, despite China's strict export controls on rare earth technologies [8]. - The EU's strategic raw materials legislation aims for a 40% self-sufficiency in rare earths by 2030, with Russia negotiating joint development of Siberian rare earth resources with Hungary and the Czech Republic [8]. Challenges Ahead - The project faces multiple challenges, including high extraction costs due to Siberia's extreme climate, which are 40% higher than in China, and potential logistical cost increases due to weak infrastructure [12]. - Technological bottlenecks in rare earth separation may lead to insufficient product purity, hindering high-end manufacturing demands [12]. - The global rare earth market is currently oversupplied, with major producers like China, Australia, and the U.S. expanding production, posing price competition risks for Russian products [12]. Conclusion - Russia's investment of 700 billion rubles aims to establish a self-sufficient rare earth industry, but the success of this initiative will likely take until 2030 to evaluate, indicating a potential reshaping of the global rare earth landscape [15].