IMF:贸易风险或致亚洲经济增长今明两年放缓

Core Insights - The Asia-Pacific region remains the fastest-growing area globally, but rising tariffs and protectionism may lead to reduced exports and ultimately impact economic activity [1] - The IMF projects Asia's GDP growth rate to be 4.5% in 2025, slightly down from 4.6% in 2024, with a further slowdown to 4.1% by 2026 [1] - Trade policy uncertainty, although decreased since April, remains high and could severely affect investment and market sentiment [1] Economic Projections - Strong export growth in Asia is expected to be driven by pre-purchase activities ahead of tariff increases and a recovery in the technology cycle [1] - Domestic demand is anticipated to remain robust due to loose policies and the global environment [1] Policy Recommendations - The IMF urges Asian policymakers to stimulate domestic demand, particularly consumption, and enhance productivity [1] - Short-term recommendations include targeted fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of trade shocks [1]