东鹏饮料(605499)：补水啦增长强劲 Q3业绩超预期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational efficiency and market expansion. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 16.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.761 billion yuan, up 38.91% [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 6.107 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.36%, while net profit was 1.386 billion yuan, an increase of 41.91% [1] Operational Analysis - The product line showed strong performance, with revenue from Dongpeng Special Drink, Bupushui, and other beverages reaching 4.203 billion, 1.354 billion, and 0.547 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 83.8%, and 95.6% [2] - The company expanded its distribution channels, with revenue from distribution, direct sales, and online channels in Q3 2025 being 5.155 billion, 0.750 billion, and 0.198 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 28.7%, 41.2%, and 42.2% [2] - Contract liabilities at the end of Q3 stood at 3.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.72%, indicating strong future sales potential [2] Profitability and Cost Management - Q3 2025 gross margin and net margin were 45.21% and 22.70%, showing a slight decrease in gross margin due to product mix changes, while net margin improved by 1.85 percentage points [3] - Sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 15.56%, 2.54%, and 0.31%, with a notable optimization in sales expense ratio due to reduced promotional costs compared to the previous year [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in the electrolyte water segment and improve profit structure through scale effects [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 4.61 billion, 5.85 billion, and 7.24 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 39%, 27%, and 24% respectively [4]