反噬的代价，欧洲承受得起吗？

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has included Chinese companies in its latest sanctions against Russia, marking a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions and potentially harming its own economic interests [1][3][5]. Economic Impact - The EU's sanctions against Chinese firms could severely disrupt the supply chains that European industries, such as solar energy, automotive, and consumer electronics, heavily rely on, with 80% of solar components imported from China [3][5]. - Following the announcement of sanctions, Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.6%, and Shanghai crude oil futures increased by 2.3%, indicating immediate market reactions to the EU's decision [3][5]. - The projected trade volume between China and the EU for 2024 is €840 billion, highlighting the interdependence of both economies [3]. Political Dynamics - The sanctions have damaged the previously cooperative relationship between China and the EU, particularly in areas like climate change and global governance, leading to a breakdown of political trust [3][5]. - The EU's actions appear to be influenced by the United States, which has historically benefited from European sanctions against Russia, raising concerns about Europe's autonomy in foreign policy [5][8]. Energy Supply Chain - The sanctions on Chinese oil refineries could disrupt global energy supply chains, as these refineries are key suppliers of middle distillates, potentially leading to increased energy costs for European consumers [5][6]. - The EU's decision to sanction Chinese energy firms may exacerbate the ongoing energy crisis in Europe, with rising costs for heating and electricity expected as winter approaches [5][6]. Strategic Considerations - The EU's approach is seen as a gamble that could backfire, risking not only economic stability but also public support as citizens face rising costs and economic challenges [8]. - There is a growing sentiment that the EU is becoming increasingly dependent on the U.S. while distancing itself from China, which could have long-term implications for its strategic autonomy [8].