房地产或将迎来4大新变化？内行：已买房的家庭，需提前做准备

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing unprecedented adjustments, with high property prices remaining a significant challenge for homebuyers [2] - The government has implemented various policies to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers, including lowering mortgage rates and down payment requirements [4] - The construction of affordable housing is being accelerated to provide housing security for low-income families [5] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of November 2022, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 16,190 yuan per square meter, while the average price for second-hand homes was 15,911 yuan per square meter, making homeownership increasingly unattainable for ordinary families [2] - The urbanization process in China is nearing its end, with 64% of the population living in urban areas, leading to a significant reduction in the influx of rural residents into cities [7] Group 2: Demographic Changes - The aging population and declining number of young people are significantly impacting the real estate market, with the elderly population exceeding 267 million and expected to surpass 400 million by 2035 [9] - The number of young people is decreasing, with 17.58 million births in 2017 dropping to 10.63 million in 2021, leading to a potential negative population growth in 2022 [9] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a growing oversupply in the housing market, with 120 million existing homes available, sufficient to meet the needs of 300-400 million people, while over 14 million new homes are supplied annually [10] - 96% of households own at least one home, and 41.5% own two or more, indicating a saturation of housing demand [10] Group 4: Policy Effectiveness - Despite various regulatory measures aimed at stimulating the market, including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower mortgage rates, the overall performance of the real estate market remains sluggish [11] - The inertia of the market adjustment trend suggests that the real estate sector may enter a prolonged period of adjustment and consolidation [11]