国轩高科(002074):动储需求旺盛 盈利拐点将至

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, primarily due to the fair value changes from its shareholding in Chery Automobile after its IPO [1] - The company’s non-recurring net profit met expectations, showing a year-on-year growth of 54% [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 10.114 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.167 billion yuan, showing substantial growth [1] - The fair value change income for Q3 2025 was 2.42 billion yuan [1] - The company’s domestic power battery installations reached 10.8 GWh in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 53% [1] Development Trends - Battery shipments are expected to exceed 30 GWh in Q4 2025, driven by strong sales of models like Chery Fengyun A9L [2] - The company anticipates continued high growth in battery shipments due to new model launches, including Geely Galaxy E5 and Changan Qiyuan A06 [2] - Strong demand for energy storage batteries is expected to persist, contributing to an upward trend in Q4 2025 [2] - Volkswagen battery orders are projected to start ramping up in 2026, with the company’s products being used in Volkswagen's new electric models [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 104.1% to 3.306 billion yuan based on fair value changes [3] - The 2026 profit forecast remains unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a 26.8x P/E ratio for 2026 [3] - The company maintains an outperform rating with a target price of 60.00 yuan, implying a 42.2% upside potential based on a 38.1x P/E for 2026 [3]