美政府停摆后唯一官方经济数据“迟到”，9月CPI渐显关税影响

Core Insights - The September CPI data shows a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, marking the highest level since January 2025 [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, the lowest since June [1] - The report was delayed due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, which has now lasted four weeks, potentially affecting future data releases [2] Inflation Drivers - Energy costs were a significant factor in the overall inflation increase, with a year-over-year rise of 2.8% in September, driven by geopolitical issues and tariffs [3] - Core inflation indicators showed signs of cooling, with core CPI year-over-year growth decreasing from 3.1% in August to 3.0% in September [3] - Housing rent continues to be the largest contributor to inflation, accounting for 40% of the total, with rental prices showing the smallest year-over-year increase since 2021 [3] Tariff Impact - Clothing prices saw significant increases, likely reflecting the impact of higher tariffs, along with other tariff-sensitive categories like appliances and communication devices [4] - The core CPI's growth is being influenced by a decline in service sector inflation, with rental prices approaching normal levels [4] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident, particularly in clothing and home goods, although the scale remains manageable [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CPI report is the only inflation indicator before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, reinforcing market expectations for potential interest rate cuts [5] - Given the ongoing government shutdown and cooling job market, a rate cut in October is considered highly probable, with December also being a likely scenario [6] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma; if inflation remains controlled, there may be more room for policy easing, but unexpected labor market strength could slow the pace of rate cuts [7] Market Conditions - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach, balancing inflation risks with employment concerns [8] - Signs of tightening liquidity in the banking system have emerged, with a significant reduction in bank reserves noted [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its asset balance sheet policy direction in the upcoming interest rate meeting [9]