Group 1 - The core CPI data for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, both below market expectations, indicating a significant reduction in inflation pressure [1] - Following the CPI release, the market raised its bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, with nearly 100% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and 98.5% for another cut in December [1] - Despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, recent signals from officials suggest a cooling job market, leading to widespread belief that the Fed has sufficient reasons to initiate a rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - The decline in inflation has boosted market optimism regarding a "rate cut + soft landing," with major U.S. stock indices rising strongly, and the Nasdaq reaching a historic high with an increase of over 1% [2] - Gold prices strengthened, with spot gold rising to $4,320 per ounce, reflecting both liquidity support from rate cut expectations and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks [2] - The Japanese stock market surged under the new prime minister's expectations, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1,600 points, surpassing the 49,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Upcoming interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan are anticipated to be significant market events, with Powell's post-meeting statements being key indicators for future policy direction [3] - The progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations is also under scrutiny; positive outcomes could enhance risk appetite, while friction could lead to renewed interest in safe-haven assets [3] - Overall, the cooling inflation and rate cut expectations create an optimistic market tone, but uncertainties from Japan's political changes, Middle East tensions, and trade talks may induce short-term volatility [3]
【UNforex本周总结】美联储宽松信号主导市场 多资产共振上涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-25 07:47