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中策橡胶(603049):成本改善趋势逐渐体现 海外基地建设贡献产能弹性

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 33.68 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.51 billion yuan, up 9.3% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.9% increase [1] Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.8% and 5.5% respectively [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 1.19 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 76.6% and a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [1] Production and Sales Growth - The company’s tire production reached 81.17 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while sales were 81.98 million units, up 12.5% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, tire sales were 28.54 million units, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 11.2% and 6.0% respectively [1] Cost and Margin Improvement - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher sales prices and improved cost structure [2] - The average sales price for tire products increased by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price for car tire products rose by 1.8% [2] - The comprehensive procurement price of key raw materials decreased by 5.2% year-on-year and 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a trend of cost improvement [2] Capacity Expansion - The company is steadily advancing capacity construction in Thailand and Indonesia, with the Indonesian base filling a local production gap and contributing to overseas revenue growth [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.39 billion yuan, 5.22 billion yuan, and 6.23 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 18.9%, and 19.3% respectively [3] - Based on the closing price on October 21, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are estimated to be 10, 9, and 7 times for the respective years [3]